Has gold or stocks performed better over the last 20 years?

It's close. The S&P 500 returned about 9.7% annualized (with dividends reinvested) from 2005–2024; gold returned about 9.2%. Gold beat stocks 2000–2011 and again briefly 2018–2020; stocks have beaten gold 2011–2017 and 2022–2024. Holding both reduces correlation risk because they don't move together.

Are bonds a good investment for retirees?

Yes — for income and drawdown cushion. Bonds returned about 3.4% nominal over the last 20 years (Bloomberg US Aggregate), which barely beats inflation, but their negative correlation with stocks during recessions made them historically valuable. The 2022 simultaneous stock + bond drawdown showed the limits of pure 60/40, which is why many retirees now add a 5–15% real-asset slice.

Is real estate a better hedge than gold?

Both are 'real assets' that historically protect against inflation, but they behave differently. Real estate (REITs in particular) provides current income and tends to track moderate inflation well. Gold has no income but has been the best performer in stagflation and crisis periods (1970s, 2008, COVID). Most planners hold both — REITs for income, gold for crisis hedge.

What returns more — gold or REITs?

Over the last 20 years, gold has slightly outperformed REITs (9.2% vs 8.3% annualized). Over 50 years, the order has flipped multiple times — REITs were dominant 1980–2007, gold dominant 2000–2011 and 2018–present. Their correlation is low (~0.15), so a portfolio with both has a smoother return path than either alone.

What's the best inflation hedge?

Historically, in order: physical gold (especially in stagflation), TIPS (Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — direct CPI link, very low real return), real estate (especially apartments and self-storage), and commodities. Stocks lag inflation by 1–3 years before catching up via earnings growth. Bonds and cash are net losers to multi-year inflation.

How does cash compare to gold over 20 years?

Cash at 2.5% loses to inflation (2.6% headline CPI 20-yr average) — your $100k becomes about $99k of today's purchasing power in 20 years. Gold at 9.2% nominal becomes about $343k in real terms over the same period — a 3.5× swing. That gap is why even conservative advisors recommend a non-zero gold allocation.

Should I put my IRA into REITs or gold?

Most planners recommend both, in moderation. A typical balanced retirement IRA might hold 5–10% REITs and 5–15% gold inside the tax-advantaged wrapper. Both grow tax-deferred, both hedge inflation differently, and the correlation between them is low enough that the diversification benefit is meaningful.

What is the historical return on US Treasuries?

About 3.4% annualized over the last 20 years (Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index), or about 0.8% real after inflation. The 50-year average is closer to 6.5% nominal (3.0% real) because the high-rate 1980s skewed it up. With the 2024 10-year Treasury yielding ~4.5%, forward bond returns are projected slightly higher than the 20-year average.

Why hold gold if stocks return more?

Two reasons. (1) Stocks and gold have low correlation (~0.0 to 0.2), so the combined portfolio's volatility drops without sacrificing much return. (2) Gold tends to outperform exactly when stocks fall — 2008, COVID, 1970s — which is also when retirees most need their portfolio to hold up. The role of gold isn't to beat stocks; it's to keep working when stocks aren't.

Compare · Updated 2026

Gold, bonds, REITs, stocks, cash — side by side

Drop in any starting amount and any horizon. We project all five asset classes using their 20-year annualized returns, both nominal and after inflation.

Starting amount

Years to project

1 yr20 yr40 yr

Inflation: 2.6% (BLS 20-yr)

Best real return over 20 years

S&P 500 (Stocks)

6.92% real CAGR · final value $381,228 in today's dollars

Starting amount

$100,000

Projected nominal value

Compounded at each asset's 20-year average annualized return.

S&P 500
Gold
REITs
Bonds
Cash

Summary table

Asset	Nominal CAGR	Real CAGR	Final value	In today's $
S&P 500 (Stocks) Highest long-run growth. Largest drawdowns.	9.70%	6.92%	$637k	$381k
Physical Gold Inflation + currency hedge. Best in stagflation and crises.	9.20%	6.43%	$581k	$348k
REITs / Real Estate Inflation-linked rental income + appreciation. Rate-sensitive.	8.30%	5.56%	$493k	$295k
US Treasuries / Bonds Income + equity-drawdown cushion. Hurt by rising rates.	3.40%	0.78%	$195k	$117k
Cash / Money Market Liquidity. Loses to inflation over multi-year horizons.	2.50%	-0.10%	$164k	$98k

Updated June 2026. Source: LBMA Gold/Silver Fix + S&P 500 total return (Bloomberg). Last verified January 2026. Next review: January each year.

Gold vs Bonds vs Real Estate — How It Works

Each asset is compounded forward at its 20-year annualized return: S&P 500 total return ~9.7%, gold (LBMA fix) ~9.2%, REITs (FTSE Nareit US Real Estate) ~8.3%, US bonds (Bloomberg US Aggregate) ~3.4%, cash (3-month T-bill / money market) ~2.5%. Inflation defaults to BLS CPI-U 20-year average of 2.6%.

Real CAGR is computed as (1 + nominal) / (1 + inflation) − 1, so a nominal 9.2% gold return at 2.6% inflation works out to ~6.4% real. Final-value-in-today's-dollars divides the projected nominal balance by (1 + inflation)^years.

These projections assume the next 20 years look roughly like the last 20. Real outcomes depend on starting valuations, the inflation regime, and policy choices. The chart is most useful for comparing the relative differences across assets, not as a precise forecast of any single asset's return.

Frequently Asked Questions

Each has a distinct role: stocks for growth (~9.7% nominal 20-yr), gold for inflation/crisis hedge (~9.2%), REITs for inflation-linked income (~8.3%), bonds for income and drawdown cushion (~3.4%), cash for liquidity (~2.5%). The right answer is rarely 'one of them' — most retirees hold all five in some combination.

How Gold IRA Blueprint Keeps This Tool Accurate

20-year annualized returns are pulled from src/data/regulatory.ts (METALS_RETURNS block) and re-verified each January using LBMA gold/silver fix, S&P 500 total return, Bloomberg US Aggregate Bond Index, and FTSE Nareit US Real Estate Index. Inflation pinned to BLS CPI-U 20-year average.

Last reviewed: January 2026 — next review January 2027

Gold vs Bonds vs Real Estate

Gold, bonds, REITs, stocks, cash — side by side

Projected nominal value

Summary table

Add gold's inflation hedge to your retirement portfolio

Related free retirement tools

Gold vs Stocks

Silver vs Stocks

Precious Metals Allocation Tool

Gold vs Bonds vs Real Estate — How It Works

Frequently Asked Questions

How Gold IRA Blueprint Keeps This Tool Accurate