What are the biggest risks in retirement?

The five we measure: (1) not having enough saved (the Fidelity multiple gap); (2) a market crash in the first 5 years of retirement (sequence risk); (3) inflation eroding purchasing power over 25–30 years; (4) being too concentrated in one asset (usually stocks); (5) outliving your money — a 65-year-old has a 34% chance of reaching 90.

How is the sequence-of-returns risk score calculated?

Sequence risk is highest in the 5 years on either side of retirement, because that's when a market crash forces you to sell down assets that may never recover. We score 20 if you're 15+ years out, 45 if 8–14 years out, 70 if 3–7 years out, and 90 if you're within 2 years of retirement. The classic mitigation is a 'bond tent' — temporarily increase bonds + gold around the retirement date.

What's a good retirement risk grade?

A (under 20): plan is solid across all five dimensions. B (20–34): one or two areas need attention but no crisis. C (35–54): meaningful work to do — most pre-retirees land here. D (55–74): material risk; a setback could derail retirement. F (75+): high probability of running out of money or dramatically reducing lifestyle.

How do I lower my retirement risk score?

Address the highest-scoring factor first. Most commonly that's savings (increase your contribution rate), then concentration (rebalance away from 80%+ stocks), then inflation exposure (add 5–15% gold). Sequence risk and longevity risk you can't fully eliminate, but you can mitigate with a bond tent and by delaying Social Security to 70.

Why does inflation get its own risk factor?

Because it compounds silently. Long-run CPI has averaged 3.8% over 50 years. At 3% inflation, $100,000 of expenses today becomes $181,000 in 20 years — and $244,000 in 30. A retirement plan that doesn't explicitly model inflation will run out of money 5–10 years earlier than projected.

Should I worry about sequence-of-returns risk?

Yes if you're within 5 years of retirement. Two retirees with identical 30-year average returns can have completely different outcomes if one experiences a 30%+ drop in years 1–3 of retirement. A 1973 retiree with the 'safe' 4% rule actually ran out of money in 22 years; a 1982 retiree was up 200% by year 22.

What is the Fidelity savings multiple benchmark?

Fidelity Investments publishes age-based salary multiples as a savings benchmark: 1× salary by age 30, 3× by 40, 6× by 50, 8× by 60, 10× by 67. We use these as the savings adequacy yardstick. Falling short means you'll likely need to save more, work longer, or reduce retirement spending.

How does gold lower my retirement risk score?

Gold helps directly on two factors: it reduces inflation exposure (it's compounded above CPI for 50+ years) and reduces concentration (it's uncorrelated with stocks/bonds in most decades). Even a modest 5–10% gold allocation typically lowers the composite score by 8–15 points for under-diversified portfolios.

What's the difference between this and a retirement readiness score?

Readiness is forward-looking: 'will my plan probably succeed?' This Risk Score is hazard-specific: 'which threats are most acute?' Readiness gives you a single yes/no-ish answer; the Risk Score tells you which lever to pull first. Best practice is to use both — they answer different questions.

5-factor risk composite · Updated 1970

What's your retirement risk grade?

Our 5-factor retirement risk score grades the threats most likely to derail your plan — savings shortfall, sequence-of-returns, inflation, concentration, and longevity — into a single 0–100 composite with an A–F grade and the one action with the biggest impact.

About you

Current age: 58

305880

Target retirement age: 65

506575

Current retirement savings

Annual salary

Expected annual retirement expenses (today's $)

Expected monthly Social Security

Current allocation

Stocks: 70%

0%70%100%

Bonds: 25%

0%25%100%

Gold: 5%

0%5%50%

Composite risk

out of 100 (lower is better)

Grade

Risk band: Moderate

Top recommendation

De-risk now with 25–35% in bonds + 5–15% in gold to protect against a year-1 retirement crash.

5-factor risk profile

Factor-by-factor breakdown

Savings adequacy

You have 4.7× salary; Fidelity target at age 58 is 6×.

Low

Sequence-of-returns risk

7 years until retirement gives the portfolio time to recover from any near-term crash.

High

Inflation exposure

60% of retirement expenses must come from your savings (not SS). Long-run CPI averages 3.8%.

Moderate

Concentration risk

Largest single asset is 70% of your portfolio. Anything above 70% in one asset is a meaningful concentration risk.

Moderate

Longevity risk

A 65-year-old has a 34% chance of reaching age 90. Your nest egg may need to fund 20+ years.

Moderate

Updated January 1970. Source: Fidelity Viewpoints — How much do I need to retire? · Social Security Administration Period Life Table 2021. Last verified January 2026. Next review: January each year.

Retirement Risk Score — How It Works

The composite is a weighted average of five sub-scores: savings adequacy (30% weight), sequence-of-returns risk (20%), inflation exposure (20%), concentration risk (15%), and longevity risk (15%). Each sub-score runs 0–100 where 0 = lowest risk and 100 = highest.

Savings adequacy compares your current balance to Fidelity's age-based salary multiples (1×, 3×, 6×, 8×, 10× at ages 30/40/50/60/67). Sequence risk is bucketed by years to retirement, peaking inside the 5-year window around the retirement date. Inflation exposure scales with the share of expenses NOT covered by Social Security and adds a penalty for sub-5% gold allocations. Concentration risk is calculated from the largest single asset slice, with material risk above 70%. Longevity risk uses SSA period life tables: a 65-year-old has a 34% chance of reaching 90, climbing to 56% for joint survivorship.

The letter grade maps as: A (composite under 20), B (20–34), C (35–54), D (55–74), F (75+). The "top recommendation" highlights the single highest-scoring factor, since fixing the worst factor moves the composite faster than balanced effort across all five.

Frequently Asked Questions

It's a 0–100 composite that summarizes the five biggest threats to a retirement plan: savings shortfall, sequence-of-returns risk, inflation exposure, portfolio concentration, and longevity risk. Lower is better. We grade A (under 20) through F (75+).

Gold IRA Blueprint|Retirement Risk Score

What's your retirement risk grade?

About you

Current allocation

5-factor risk profile

Factor-by-factor breakdown

Increase your gold position to drop a full grade

Related free retirement tools

Retirement Readiness Score

Longevity Risk Calculator

Sequence of Returns Risk Visualizer

Retirement Risk Score — How It Works

Frequently Asked Questions

How Gold IRA Blueprint Keeps This Tool Accurate