What's the probability I'll live to 90 or 95?

From SSA 2021 period life tables, a 65-year-old's probability of reaching: age 80 = 71%, age 85 = 55%, age 90 = 34%, age 95 = 15%, age 100 = 4%. For couples, joint survivorship is meaningfully higher — there's a 28% chance at least one spouse in a 65-year-old couple reaches age 95.

How long should I plan for retirement to last?

Most planners use age 95 as the planning horizon for singles and 100 for couples. That covers about 85% of the survival distribution. If you have above-median health, family longevity, or are female, plan one age band higher. If you have below-median health markers, you can plan to age 90.

What's the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year retirement?

The Trinity Study established 4% as the safe withdrawal rate for a 30-year horizon (60/40 portfolio, US data). For a 35-year retirement, safe withdrawal drops to about 3.5%. For 40 years, around 3.0–3.3%. Each additional 5 years of expected longevity reduces safe withdrawal by roughly 0.3–0.5 percentage points.

How does retiring early change longevity risk?

Drastically. Retiring at 55 with a 95-year planning horizon means funding 40 years vs. 30 years for retiring at 65 — that's 33% more years to fund. Most FIRE calculators use a 3.0–3.5% withdrawal rate instead of 4% to account for this.

Do men or women face higher longevity risk?

Women. A 65-year-old woman has a median life expectancy of 86, vs 83 for a man. The probability of reaching 90 is 39% for women vs 28% for men. Married couples should plan around the wife's mortality curve, not the husband's.

How does the SSA life table work?

It's a 'period life table' that shows the probability of someone alive today at age X surviving to age Y, based on current mortality rates by age. The SSA updates it annually using death certificate data. We use the 2021 release (most recent verified) and average male/female to get a single-life unisex curve, plus a derived joint-survivorship curve for couples.

Does the 4% rule account for longevity?

Only for a 30-year retirement. The original Trinity Study (Bengen 1994) ran 30-year periods using historical US data. If you live past 95 (15% chance starting at 65), the 4% rule has a meaningful failure probability — historically about 5–10%. Adding 5–15% gold or 25–35% bonds typically pushes that closer to 0%.

What can I do to reduce longevity risk?

Five proven levers: (1) delay Social Security to 70 — locks in 32% higher inflation-adjusted income for life; (2) save more / spend less; (3) work longer (each year of delay roughly cuts longevity risk in half); (4) buy a longevity annuity (QLAC) at age 80 to cover ages 85+; (5) hold gold and TIPS as inflation insurance for the back half of retirement.

Should I buy an annuity for longevity insurance?

A longevity annuity (QLAC) bought at retirement that begins paying at age 80 or 85 is the cleanest solution. It uses a small portion of savings (typically 10–25%) to guarantee a baseline income for the years you're statistically least likely to reach but most likely to need it. SECURE 2.0 raised the QLAC limit to $200,000.

SSA period life tables · Updated 2026

Will you outlive your money?

We project your savings against actual SSA mortality data and tell you the probability you're still alive when the money runs out.

Your situation

Current age: 60

456080

Household

Retirement age: 67

606775

Current retirement savings

Annual withdrawal (today's $, real)

Real return on portfolio: 4.0%

0.0%4.0%8.0%

After inflation. 4% real = a typical 60/40 portfolio.

Money runs out at age

100+

Your savings outlast age 100

Probability you outlive your money

Single life

Reach 90 / 95

34% / 15%

SSA period life table

Balance vs survival probability over time

The shaded area shows your remaining nest egg. The line shows the probability you're still alive at each age.

Balance ($)
Probability alive

Single vs joint survival probability

For a 65-year-old today. Joint = at least one of two spouses still alive at that age.

Reach age	Single life	Couple (joint)	Joint vs single
80	71%	92%	1.29× higheryour row
85	55%	80%	1.45× higheryour row
90	34%	56%	1.66× higheryour row
95	15%	28%	1.85× higheryour row
100	4%	8%	1.95× higheryour row

Source: SSA 2021 Period Life Table. Joint probabilities derived from 1 − (1 − p_male)(1 − p_female).

Verdict: At a 4.0% real return and $45,000/yr in withdrawals, your savings comfortably outlast age 100. Longevity risk is low.

Updated June 2026. Source: Social Security Administration Period Life Table 2021. Last verified January 2026. Next review: January each year.

Longevity Risk Calculator — How It Works

Survival probabilities come from the Social Security Administration's 2021 Period Life Table — the same dataset SSA uses to set Social Security actuarial assumptions. We average the male and female single-life curves to get a unisex single-life curve, then derive a joint-survivorship curve for couples using the standard 1 − (1 − p_male)(1 − p_female) approximation. Anchor probabilities (ages 70, 75, 80, 85, 90, 95, 100) are stored in src/data/regulatory.ts under SSA_LIFE_TABLE; in-between ages are linearly interpolated.

The balance projection runs in REAL terms: your annual withdrawal is held constant in today's dollars, and the portfolio grows at the real (after-inflation) return you specify. This is the standard approach used in the Trinity Study and Monte Carlo retirement simulators — it lets you ignore inflation in the chart while still capturing the corrosive effect on purchasing power.

"Probability you outlive your money" is the survival probability at the age your portfolio hits zero. If your money lasts past age 100, the probability is reported as 0% (effectively zero risk). Anything above 20% is considered material longevity risk and warrants either a withdrawal cut, working longer, or longevity insurance via a QLAC.

Frequently Asked Questions

Longevity risk is the chance you outlive your savings. SSA period life tables show a 65-year-old has a 34% chance of reaching age 90 and a 15% chance of reaching 95. For a married couple, the probability that AT LEAST ONE spouse reaches 90 jumps to 56%. Most retirement plans implicitly assume you'll die at 85 — which is exactly the median, meaning half of retirees will live longer.

Longevity Risk Calculator

Will you outlive your money?

Your situation

Balance vs survival probability over time

Single vs joint survival probability

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